If you play old school fantasy football your season was over week 16, if you reached the final. Otherwise the season could’ve been over already in week 13. Or even earlier if you got unlucky.
Thank good for Daily Fantasy Sports! We’ll have action two more weeks. That’s two more chances of winning. And get you out of the hole Father Christmas put you in.
There are some variations of old school fantasy football in the play offs. But they are all like different versions of surrogate coffee during the World War II. The principle is always the same, you get rewarded if your teams progresses, so you have to pick almost all the players from one team to have a shot at winning. Mathematically you have to pick the favorite teams. So everybody picks the same players. It’s taste like shit, or surrogate coffee from World War II. It’s only drinkable if you’re very desperate.
Good thing DFS exists. It’s like Starbucks every week.
Obviously you still want to lean on players in teams you think will score a lot, but that goes for every week. And you get a fresh start if the Wild Card matches go bananas compared to your analysis.
There are four matches to pick from this week. An added value is that it’s only one game at a time. You can keep perfect fantasy score after each down. That’s what I call entertainment value. All-in is pick the most players in the last game.
Oakland Raiders @ Houston Texans
The lowest total by far. Nobody expects points from QB Brook Osweiler with the worst rating in NFL this season, or from rookie QB Connor Cook in his first start ever.
Some bargains are no bargains, because crap is crap. I’m staying away.
Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks
I see more points than expected. That equals DFS value. But you must pick the right apples for your basket.
Miami Dolphins @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Dolphins will no be able to stop a healthy Steelers team. But they will also score.
Build your team with players from this game. But checkout the weather before you finalizes your line-up. There could be heavy winds in Pittsburgh and that’s fantasy death.
New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers
QB Aaron Rodgers and his targets have been very efficient down the stretch, but they are facing a stingy New York Giants defense.
You can find good value, but it’s not automatic.
Big Ben Roethlisberger should be top-ranked and is a good option. The points will come. But there is a chance of a blowout and no points in the 4th quarter. I prefer to spend my dollars in other positions.
Russel Wilson is a more dangerous option, but the potential is there against a bad Lions defense.
My pick is Dolphins Matt Moore on the other side of Big Ben with great catch-up potential in a possible shoot out. A $1,700 rebate at FanDuel is good. But if you play at DraftKings he is a must for the miminal price tag of $5,100
Steelers Le’Veon Bell is a lot more expensive than all other options, but he’s probably worth it. If he goes off – I think he will – and you don’t have him in your lineup you are facing a steep uphill battle. Dolphins are almost worst in the NFL against the run. Pick Bell as your bell cow.
But you need to save elsewhere. Texans Lamar Miller could be reasonable priced option. He’s coming back from injury and is flying under the radar. With Brock Osweiler as QB the Texans game plan will be: run, run and run again.
Lions Zach Zenner is the best-priced running back this week. Has looked really good lately, has received a lot of touches and passes, and this week he was pronounced the lead back. The combo Bell-Zenner looks like a very strong play this week.
Antonio Brown has a nice matchup against an injured-riddle Dolphin secondary.
Odell Beckham has a nice matchup against an injured-riddle Packer secondary.
I cannot fault you for taking any of those two. But I do want to warn you against taking Jordy Nelson. The Giants defense is very stingy.
It’s not easy to find a good WR option this week. Doug Martin, Seattle, is facing CB Darius Slay. I don’t want any wide receiver trying to catch wobbling ducks from Osweiler or Cook, or an injured Stafford.
I like Jarvis Landry, Dolphins. QB Matt Moore will target him often and Steelers secondary lacks a shut down CB.
If you can’t afford one of the two expensive options next to Landry you’re on your own. Almost. Amari Cooper is an uber-talent pro bowler that has come out and “demanded” passes this week. The rookie Connor Cook will probably comply.
Eric Ebron has looked good recently. He has the second most targets on the team with 30 since week 14. He has caught at least 4 passes the last 5 weeks.
But I think Dion Sims, Dolphins is a much better option. He is the cheapest TE-alternative on the board, has seen an up-tick in targets, is a viable red-zone threat and is up against Steelers that struggle against tight ends.
The difference between the most expensive kicker Sebastian Janikowski at $5,000 and the cheapest option is only $500. You can get Robbie Gould and Nick Novak for $4,500.
Pick your other starters and see how much you get over to spend on a kicker.
I wouldn’t pick a kicker from Oakland Raiders @ Houston Texans.
I wouldn’t pick the Steelers kicker because they like to go for two-point conversations and I don’t think Dolphins can stop the offense at field goal attempts. The Dolphins will need to keep up with TD’s, so their kicker is out too.
Giants likes to go for it on 4th downs instead of trying to kick field goals. Gould is not a good option.
That leaves us with three options left:
Matt Prater, Lions $4,900
Steve Hauschka, Seahawks $4,700
Mason Crosby, Packers $4,600
How much do you have left to spend?
Raiders Connor Cook is starting in his first ever NFL-game. It’s a play off game, it’s away and it’s against the top-ranked defense in the league.
Pick Houston Texans D for all your line-ups and move on.