NFL calls it the divisional round. In Europe they would call it quarterfinals. More importantly, it’s the last weekend for DFS fun and the last chance to make money at fantasy football.
This season that is. There’s always next season. And before that there is a lot of fun and hard work to do. First the aftermath where you identify possible fantasy gems for next season. Then it’s the free agency. Then it’s the draft. Then it’s the training camps. And then it’s the preseason games. I’ll be busy and you can continue following me all offseason long. I’ll give you the important weekly takeaways so you’ll be ready next season.
Seven games left of this season. But there’s only four of the DFS season, two on Saturday and two on Sunday.
The strategy this week is to identify the game flow and teams tactics. In other words: will there be many or few points scored in the game?
Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons
Falcons have the most potent offense in the league, by quite a margin. They are playing at home in Georgia Dome and is expected to put up 28,5 points according to the odds makers in Vegas.
The Legion of Doom, the Seahawks secondary, have not been up to par and expectations after the soul and leader of the defense safetey Earl Thomas has been out due to injury.
Falcons defense has glaring holes, but I think Seahawks don’t think they can compete in a shootout and looks to slow the tempo down. Seahawks is expected to put up 23 points according to Vegas.
Houston Texans @ New England Patriots
Texans is by far the worst team left in the playoffs. This season they lost 0-27 to Patriots. Last season they lost 6-27 to Patriots. That’s 0 TD’s in two games. They are supposed to put up 14 points according to Vegas. I’m betting under on that. Do not, I repeat, do not pick any Texans player this week.
Patriots will cruise. This game will be over early. Patriots are supposed to put up 30 points according to Vegas. They might, but the might also pull QB Tom Brady and other starters in the 4th quarter because the game is already over. Staying away from all Patriots players for your line-ups could be a very good gamble. Especially since Texans defense is ranked number one in the league.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Kansas City Chiefs
There could be freezing snowy rain come Sunday in Kansas. Be sure to checkout the latest weather news before you invest money.
Steelers has a very potent offense. They are better than their already good numbers because of injuries to their big three stars. Vegas says they will put up 21 points. I expect more.
Chiefs are supposed to put up 22,5 point on average, but Steelers defense is probably the most undervalued side left in the play offs.
I’ve Steelers cravings this. But perhaps I shouldn’t discount that Chiefs head coach Andy Reid is 19-2 coming off a bye, which he essentially does now.
Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys
Nobody is hotter than QB Aaron Rodgers right now. He has averaged almost 300 passing yards the last 7 games and has a TD to interception ratio of 18-0. Packers will put up 23,5 points according to Vegas. But there are potential for more in a possible shootout.
Cowboys are supposed to put up 28 points and surely we can find fantasy value in their ranks.
Aaron Rodgers, Packers, is the best option.
If you want a cheaper option you have Matt Ryan, Falcons and Russell Wilson, Seahawks and. But you only save $500 respectively $600 and it’s not worth it.
The cheap QB’s Brock Osweiler, Texans and Alex Smith, Chiefs, are truly horrible options that probably will kill your team.
Steelers Le’Veon Bell is a lot more expensive than all other options, but he’s probably worth it. If he goes off – I think he will – and you don’t have him in your lineup you are facing a steep uphill battle.
Kansas City Chiefs defense is weak against the run up the middle. Expect Bell to punch through holes for big gains all game long.
The other option is Ezekiel Elliot. Cowboys will give him the rock all evening long, because he’s excellent and because they want Packers QB Aaron Rodgers off the field.
The top options are facing good defense. Let’s find something cheaper. We need to save dollars after spending at QB and RB anyway.
Dez Bryant, Cowboys has a great matchup against an injury depleted Packers secondary.
Jearmaine Kearse, Seahawks is a very cheap and good option. Doug Baldwin stole a TD from Kearse last week. Tyler Lockette is out and Kearse is flying under the radar.
Steelers have problem with tight ends, and probably don’t mind giving up shorter passes. TE Trevis Kelche, Chiefs could be a PPR-monster.
Jason Witten, Cowboys, is a good player at a good price with great upside. You cannot ask for more than that.
Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots, was the best fantasy kicker in NFL for three straight years. This year he’s kind of forgotten. If the Texans number one defense makes a couple of red zone stops Gostkowski could rack up field goals.
Texans will make the least points this week. QB Brock Osweiler is the worst QB left in the play offs – bye a landslide. Patriots defense is – and it’s not even close – the best in NFL of scoring TD’s.
New England Patriots defense is the fantasy play of the week.