The DFS-season is officially over. I hope you where skillful when you could and lucky when you should.
The NFL season is almost over, just one little game left …
Super Bowl!
New England Patriots against Atlanta Falcons in NRG-stadium, Houston, Texans. The weather is expected to be very nice, as well as the artificial turf.
The game will be analyzed in all possible and improbable ways. People will be betting on the coin flip and all other things you can think of, and not think of.
Lets analyze the game from the perspective of fantasy production. Can we perhaps find the winner in that way? It does have a logic to it. If not, we can still capitalize on all the 500+ props available on the game.
Coaches
New England Patriots Head Coach Bill Belichick is considered as on of the all time great coaches. Since taking over Patriots in 2000 he has won the division 12 out of 17 times, made the Conference Finals 11 times, Super Bowl 6 times and won it 4 times.
That experience could be a factor in Super Bowl.
Atlanta Falcons Dan Quinn is only doing his second year as a Head Coach. But! He used to be the Defensive Coach for Seattle Seahawks and this is his 3rd Super Bowl in 4 years. His Offensive Coach Kyle Shanahan is only 37 years old, but has made the Falcons offense one of the best in history.
Edge Patriots, but perhaps not as big as people think.
QB
Tom Brady averaged 20,1 fantasy points in the regular season. But they had big leads in the fourth quarter in many games and he could have produced more if needed. And he didn´t play the first 4 games so he is fresh.
Matt Ryan had a record season with an average of 21,7 fantasy points.
No edge here.
RB
The fantasy production of Patriots changes a lot from game to game depending on the game plan. But the RB’s averaged:
LeGarette Blount 14,6 points
James White 10,1 points
Dion Lewis 7,8 points (He only played in the last seven games, the average of those games)
Falcons have two stars.
Devonta Freeman 28,7 points
Tevin Coleman 11,9 points
Tevin Coleman was injured 3 games, so the average is higher for him.
Big edge Falcons
WR
Patriots:
Julian Edelman 14,4 points
Chris Hogan 8,1 points
Malcolm Mitchell 6,0 points
Michael Floyd 7,2 points
The total production is 35,7 points
Falcons:
Julio jones 16,2 points
Mohamed Sanu 9,3 points
Taylor Gabriel 8,8 points
Total production: 34,9 points
No edge on the surface. But Julio Jones could be the best WR in the league and he has been injured. He is now 100%.
Edge Falcons.
TE
This should be the Patriots biggest edge, but Rob Gronkowski is injured and out.
Martellus Bennett 10,5 points
Falcons:
Austin Hooper 4,0 points (who?)
Still edge to Patriots.
K
Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots, 8,4 points
Matt Bryant, Falcons, 11,0 points
Edge Falcons
Defense
Patriots 7,3 points
Falcons 5,5 points
Edge Patriots
Conclusion
Falcons should be the favorite if you only look at fantasy production. There are obvious other factors on play, but Falcon at +140 in American odds, or 2,40 in decimal odds could be worth a consideration.
Falcons players looks more interesting overall when looking at props.
The total is historically all time high at 58. Perhaps leaning over on all player props is the way to go? A fluky turn over in the red zone could be all that’s needed to make the total go under, but the yards will still be there for a pleasant reading in the box score.
