Everybody can easily checkout what happened last week, and most people do. There are plenty of a articles and chronicles discussing it and coming up with the same kind of advice for next week.
If you want to stay ahead of the curve you need to dig deeper than that, or let me do it for you.
Injuries are important. Buffalo Bills ran for 193 yards against Los Angeles Rams mighty D-line. LeSean McCoy accounted for 150 of those. Many people think that this means that because Bills finally got their running game going and that it’s evidence that they will continue to have success. But they forget the fact that Rams had three starters out from the D-line. LeSean McCoy is good fade material for the next couple of weeks.
A team’s game plan is also important. Will the team try to run and even milk the clock, or will they air it out. Julio Jones had what probably will be this season best wide receiver performance week 4 against Carolina Panthers with 12 receptions out of 15 targets, 300 yards and 1 TD. Against Denver Broncos the next week he was only targeted six teams and had two receptions for 29 yards. That killed a lot of teams who jumped on the bandwagon one week to late.
The big difference in Julio Jones fantasy performance also had to do with the matchups. Carolina Panthers has lost CB Josh Norman and the three rookie-CB’s had no chance against Julio Jones. Atlanta Falcons used that. Denver Broncos has the leagues best defense. They can cover Julio Jones, so Atlanta Falcons used short passes to their running backs instead. Which also neutralized Broncos great pass-rush.
How injured a player is can sometimes be hard to gauge. The team is not always honest on the status. Detroit Lions used Calvin “Megatrone” Johnson as a decoy many times last season.
A team’s game plan is even more difficult to know, for the same reason. But sometimes you can get clues of manager’s comments to the media. A lot of times the game plan is obvious, and then you can get a distinct advantage over other fantasy players.
Matchups are most of the times easy to predict, but sometimes a defense throws a real curveball. Nobody said it was easy. The name of the game is to do your homework, find edges and let the law of mathematics churn out a positive yield over time.
Hers is some Daily Fantasy Players I like this week:
Tom Brady – no rust whatsoever in his season premier. There are signs that Cincinnati Bengals defense is not as good as last year. All Bradys receiving weapons are healthy and I don’t think any team in the leauge knows how to stop the 2 TE-set with Rob Gronkowski and Martellus Bennett. Tom Brady costs $9,000 at FanDuel and $7,700 at DraftKings.
Alex Smith – if you want to go cheap at the QB-position. Will get RB Jamaal Charles back. Oakland Raiders have a crappy defense, but a potent offense. Smith can produce all four quarters and is a good value play. Alex Smith costs $6,800 at FanDuel and $5,700 at DraftKings.
LeSean McCoy – not cheap, but fresh as a rose bud and lethal as viper. Is completely healthy after his suspension. Looked great last week. Is a matchup nightmare for Miami Dolphins shaky defense. LeSean McCoy costs $9,300 at FanDuel and $6,900 at DraftKings.
Allen Robinson – the perfect contrarian bet this week. One of the NFL’s premier receivers, completely forgotten. Has a very tasty matchup against Chicago Bears that Jacksonville Jaguars will not be able to run against. Allen Robinson costs $8,600 at FanDuel and $7,800 at DraftKings.
You also need to cheaper options to spice your fantasy teams up and get ahead of the field. These are some players with great upside this week:
RB Jonathan Steward, Carolina Panthers against New Orleans Sains.
TE Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles against Washington Redskins.
TE Julius Thomas, Jacksonville Jaguars against Chicago Bears.
WR Jarvis Landry, Miami Dolphins against Pittsburgh Steelers.
For the final part of your team or teams I recommend:
K Adam Vinatieri, Indianapolis Colts against Houston Texans.
D Tennessee Titans against Cleveland Browns.