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Daily Fantasy Football Advice - week one

Now the real fun finally begins. It was fun tracking the free agent moves, it was fun to follow the draft, and it was fun to monitor training camps and preseason matches. But nothing compares to the real season.

Playing Daily Fantasy Football makes it so much more fun. Rule number one is to not get broke. Fan Duel and DraftKings have contest for free where you can win money, but I like to play head to head and take a shot at the million dollar prices too.

I’ve read a lot and I’ve run the numbers, but there is nothing compared to the eye test. It’s impossible to follow every player, and even more impossible to know how teams will gel. I strongly recommend that you take it easy week 1. Don’t go all-in, bet around 25 % of what you usually bet on a week.

“Nick the Greek” Dandolos is one of the most famous gamblers in the world. He played the best for the highest stakes, won and lost millions when TV was black-and-white. At the end of his life Dandalos was near broke and played $5 limit draw poker. When needled by his pears for playing so low he said: “Hey, it’s action isn’t it?”

The intangibles are extra big week one, so take a flyer on big outsiders, go against common wisdom and remember that the craziest ideas are probably the best. At least if it’s anchored with some sound logic.

Here is some good advice for you to build on in week one. If the ball bounces the right way you might find yourself winning a big price for just a few bucks.

Don’t be afraid to gamble

Follow your gut. Your ideas might be the best of all. It’s week one, nobody knows for sure anyway. Big surprises and fantasy diamonds are lurking in the bushes.

Fade all players in Green Bay Packers

Florida will be hot and humid on Sunday. Packers will rotate their players a lot according to the head coach. Jacksonville Jaguars has a much-improved defense. WR Jordy Nelson is not 100 % yet. Packers offense was not clicking with him out last season.

Fade all players in Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals looks like the most complete team in NFL. But Father Time is breathing down the neck of QB Carson Palmer. If he performs like the regular season last year they will win the Super Bowl, but he was awful in the play offs, and he hasn’t looked good in preseason.

One game is nothing and preseason is just preseason, but Carson Palmer will eventually fall of a cliff. He might already be falling and if so all players in Cardinals are great fade material.

If Carson Palmer looks good you can get on the bandwagon week two, but stay away week one.

Derek Carr, QB Oakland Raiders

Looked good last season, looked good preseason and have a very promising O-line and good wide receivers. The Saints defense was worst in the league by far last season, in fact they where historically bad. I don’t see any improvement other than the departure of DC Rob Ryan.

The game has the highest total on the board. Don’t pick 37-year old Drew Brees, Saints. Pick Derek Carr at a 10 % discount at DraftKings and 12 % discount at FanDuel.

Matthew Stafford, QB Detroit Lions

Many believe his fantasy numbers will improve when he no longer has to force-feed retired Calvin “Megatrone” Johnson. Stafford has many targets and is expected to spread the ball around; he is the Lion you want. I like WR Matt Jones, but I’m staying away until I have more information.

Lions are playing against Colts, a team with a turnstile as a defense.

The game has the same high total as Saints-Raiders. Don’t pick Andrew Luck that struggled a lot last season. Pick Stafford at a 13 % discount at DraftKings and 15 % discount at FanDuel.

Mike Evans, WR Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The third year is traditionally when Wide Receivers have the big break out. Mike Evans looked sensational his rookie season. He was good last year too, but a lot of dropped passes and fewer TD’s has made him a semi-forgotten fantasy man.

The reports say that Evans has worked very hard this off-season, and my eye-test couldn’t be more impressed. He is the cornerstone on every one of my fantasy teams.

FanDuel has him priced as the 9th Wide Reciever this week, DraftKings as the 15th. You have to spend your money somewhere and I’m taking a full bite against the Falcons putrid defense.

How does 8 receptions, 103 yards and 2 TD’s sound?

Christine Michaels, RB Seattle Seahawks

Michaels is an uber-talent that finally has his head screved on properly. Is priced as a backup, but will probably be the bell-cow come Sunday. Seahawks wants to ease Thomas Rawls back to action.

Dolphins have big troubles against the rungame.

Fanduel has Christine Michaels priced as the 59th Running Back at DraftKings and 68th Running Back at FanDuel. Remember Marshawn Lynch? Michaels has the talent to produce at the same level.

Christine Michaels is the steal of the week and should be on every one of your teams this week. 

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