To get the moneyball rolling you need to stay ahead of the curve, and you need to cut the corners in a different way than the herd.
I’m talking about Daily Fantasy Football of course, as always.
Staying ahead of the curve means you need to pick the players before their big week, because after that everybody will be picking him and the price tag will also be higher.
Cutting the corners in a different way is not as self-explanatory. I mean that you cannot pick the same players as everybody else.
If you hade WR Marvin Jones, Lions as a pick week 3 you did wonderful. He scored 38,5 fantasy points. Emmanuel Sanders, Broncos was second with 32,7 points. With both in the lineup you would’ve been hard to beat. Especially if you had Kansas City Chiefs as your defense. 32 points was 7 more than Minnesota Vikings defense with an elite 25 points. Trevor Siemian, Broncos was the highest scoring QB with 29 points, and he had a cheap price tag and wasn’t a popular choice.
This week all players mentioned above will be very popular choices. If they hit again it will be awfully crowded in front of the pearl port of the jackpot. You should cut the corner in a different angle and pick less sexy players. That is the contrarian way and that is the way to the big bucks.
Do you remember Moneyball? Brad Pitt starred in the reality-based film about Billy Beane, the head coach of the baseball club Oakland Athletics. It was nominated for six Oscars in 2012, including best picture. The film is about the general manager Billy Beane’s attempt to create a competitive team on a limited budget. Just like Daily Fantasy Football.
Beane’s solution was to rely heavy on a statistical model. The strategy was very simple; try to get a man on first base and the rest will take care of it’s self. And it did!
That’s how I play DFS and that’s what I recommend that you do too.
Pick players that will get a lot of ball, and soon you will see the moneyball come rolling.
Pick quarterbacks on teams with a bad defense, which rely on the passing game and have a high snap count.
Pick running backs that is the focal points on their offense, will get the goal line carries and is on a team with a respectable passing game.
Pick wide receivers that will get a lot of targets – it’s as simple as that. Oh, and try not to pick them when they face a shutdown corner back.
Let’s put the method to use in week 4.
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears
Lions have a muddy backfield with their starter RB Ameer Abdullah injured. They have increased their tempo every week and will throw a lot against Bears. The cherry on top is all the injuries on Bears defense.
WR Marvin Jones is priced 11th at DraftKings and 14th on FanDuel. He is a fine choice for cash games but for GPP (Guaranteed Price Pool) contests you need to dig deeper. I prefer QB Matthew Stafford. He has never been sexy in anyway or form, and that’s how I like my fantasy boys.
RB Dwayne Washington is an intriguing prospect. He might explode this week against in a favorable matchup. If not, keep him on the radar. He will make DFS-players happy some time this year.
Lions don’t have a defense either. Bears QB Brian Hoyer is not sexy either. But he put up a respectable 18,9 points week 3 while filling in for injured Jay Cutler. Hoyer is dirt-cheap, $5000 and QB-ranked 30th on DraftKings, and $6000 and QB-ranked 32th at FanDuel. In a likely shootout where Hoyer has to sling it out to keep up with Stafford he can be the perfect start on your fantasy team.
Last week I recommended Alshon Jeffery. He was a disappointment with 12 points. He didn’t get any targets, and I have a feeling that he will rebound in a big way. The combo Hoyer-Jeffery can take you a long way.
Oakland Raiders @ Baltimore Raven
This is a matchup without any big fantasy profiles (except for maybe Raiders WR Amari Cooper), but there is a change for many points, and therefore many fantasy points.
Raiders ranks 10th in snaps per game and Ravens 16th. Raiders scores the eight-most points on a per-snap base, and allows the ninth-most.
Raiders faces Ravens second-ranked run-defense and will try to air it out, which Raiders rank second at.
Ravens will likely also lean heavy on the pass against Raiders bad pass defense.
Pick your poison among the wide receivers on both teams. You will probably be positively surprised, and might even hit the jackpot with the luck on your side.
Two games to stay away from:
Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots
Divisional opponents that know each other well and usually plays low tempo against each other. A lot of injuries on both side of the rock. Stay away from everything in this game.
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons
Divisional opponents that know each other well. The total usually lands on a lower number than the bookies total. Let some other pick among all the high profile players in this game, and watch them underperform in a tight low-scoring game.