The season is over for many teams. Some teams don’t care anymore. Other teams have pride and want to play hard. They see the last game as the first game of next season.
It’s further complicated by the fact that the above reasoning goes on an individual level as well.
The season is on the line for some teams. One game will decide if there will be a post-season adventure or not. They will obviously be motivated. The question is what their opponents will do. Will they fight hard to act spoiler or will they lay an egg?
All games are divisional rivalries so you have to ask yourself the question in every game.
This season most of the play-off picture is already painted. That’s a good thing for us DFS players. It hurts to play in the NFL, and it’s a lot harder to play on the defense. A little less effort could mean, and often does mean, a big yardage play. Those big plays have a tendency to open up the game and the fantasy points flood gates.
Several Head Coaches have been fired. Several Quarter Backs are injured or is being rested. If you can cruise right between all the rotten eggs you will be heavily rewarded. This is the best DFS week of the year.
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals
Two veteran teams in cold weather that already looks to the next season. Expect low scoring in a game everybody just wants to get over with.
Except WR Sean Smith! It’s the last game for the future Hall-of-Famer. He’s well liked on the Ravens team and he will get his chances for old times sake.
Sean Smith is ranked 40th for $5,800 at FanDuel and 37th for $4,900 at DraftKings. He is a monster play and should be in every one of your lineups.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts
A meaningless game, but Jaguars D is sneaky good and will probably fight for the future after the firing of the HC. Stay away from the Colts players, its fools gold this week.
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins
Patriots has nothing to play for and will focus on not getting injuries. HC Bill Belichick does not want to give away anything before a potential rematch in the play offs.
Dolphins can move up a spot in the play-off seeding and always wants to beat big brother. Rookie HC Adam Gaze looks to cultivate a winning culture and they have the warm weather on their side.
Dolphins WR Jarvis Landry sure looks like a steal. Ranked 35th for $5,000 at DraftKings.
Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings
Bears are a veteran team that don’t care and almost surely will lay an egg.
Vikings are a well-coached team with potential. They want to build momentum for next season with a good finish.
I wouldn’t mind some WR Stefon Diggs on my teams.
Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets
The Ryan brothers are finally fired and that was the last coaching gig those old eggs ever got in the NFL. Bills don’t care this week. Unfortunately the Jets suck too much to take advantage.
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles
I can see Cowboys resting their starters in the second half. Stay away!
Eagles have fought hard all season. Beating the team with the best record in the league is all the motivation they’ll need.
TE Zach Ertz is the sexiest alternative for me.
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers
You obviously don’t want anything of the Clowns. But you don’t want anything of the Steelers this week either. They are resting QB Big Ben, RB Le’Veon Bell and WR Antonio Brown.
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Buccs QB Jameis Winston could be an option against a Panthers secondary that have sucked all year, and probably cares even less now.
Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans
To bad Texans have Tom Savage as QB against a Titans that lost out on the play offs and probably will not care about this game.
New York Giants @ Washington Redskins
This is a probable high-scoring affair. There are several options that could be worth an investment, but nothing that stands out.
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons
Saints loves to play spoilers against Falcons. QB Drew Brees always plays good in week 17. There are many alternatives for your line-ups from this game that have the highest total of the week and is an expected shoot-out.
The only negative is that all of your opponents will feed here. The contrarian in me hates that.
Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos
QB Derek Carr injured and whatever Broncos put up is even worse than the Raiders reserve.
Pass!
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams
I can see Cardinals beating up on Rams to ease the pain of a frustrating season.
I can also see them not care at all.
Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers
Chiefs need to win to secure the 5th seed, but they never blow out anybody.
I see Chargers without energy after a long season derailed by many injuries.
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers
No thank you.
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions
This is the only real meaningful game on the board. The winner goes to the play offs and the loser goes home.
Both teams have potent offense and blemishes on defense. I see ha shoot out. That’s what you are looking for as a DFS player.
Packers have been the perhaps hottest team in the NFL the last couple of weeks. But it’s also priced that way. There might be value, but there are no bargains to be had.
QB Matthew Stafford is also pricy, but his targets are not. RB Theo Riddick is back from injury and a target machine for passes. Could be a star in PPR’s.
WR Golden Tate is Stafford’s favorite target. He’s ranked 42th for $5,700 at FanDuel. That’s incredible value. If he’s not in every line up of yours you are a lost case. DraftKings have him ranked 9th for $6,600.
Happy hunting!
