DFS is not only about picking the right player. It’s also about picking the right player at the right time at the right price, and under the right circumstances.
I prefer cash games where you play headsup. If you make value choices across the board you have a good chance of winning. Understand and respect the variance; and your bankroll will grow over time.
I like GPP’s too, but I understand how difficult they are to win and treat the buy-ins as gone when I press play. I sort it under entertainment. Instead of visiting a restaurant or go to the movies I’ll take a shot at the jackpot. There’s nothing wrong with that, in fact I consider it money well spent because the entertainment value is great. But I do understand how hard it is to find the needle in the haystack, even if I have a metal detector.
Lets look at last week. The winner at DraftKings had to beat 256,903 other contestants to pick up the check of one million dollars. In order to do that you need to gamble. This was his winning team:
QB: Matt Ryan, ATL, 39,52 points
WR: Julio Jones, ATL, 51 points
This QB-WR combo used to be great a couple of years ago, especially at home in the Georgiadome. But Matt Ryan have lately seemed over the top, and not many players liked his chances against Panthers, one of last season’s best defenses. Julio Jones came of a bad performance and not many GPP players looked in this direction.
But Falcons offense had looked good this season, Julio Jones is one of the best receivers in the NFL and Panthers lost their star cornerback Josh Norman this season. Panthers D has not looked good this year. As you see it, it wasn’t completely out of the blue.
RB Ezekiel Elliott 25,7 points
RB Isaiah Crowell, CLE, 25,4 points
I had Elliott myself on my team, and so had many others. Crowell was harder to find. But he had looked the best of Browns RB-committee and Redskins run-D could be exploited. It was a gamble, but it paid off.
WR Terrelle Pryor, CLE, 15 points
WR Steve Smith, BAL, 28,1 points
WR Eddie Royal, CHI, 27,1 points
Pryor is Browns number one receiver and was priced very well. Many liked him and his draft percentage was 33,70.
Steve Smith produces unevenly, but was not far-fetched against Browns pathetic secondary.
Royal is Bears WR3. With a draft percentage at DraftKings at only 0,4% he was the bomb. There was many things pointing to that he was a bargain; playing against Lions, new QB Brian Hoyer who was unbiased to any of the receivers, WR1 Ashlon Jeffery banged up and semi-injured, WR2 Kevin White even more banged up.
TE Jordan Reed, WAS, 28,3 points
Expensive, but this week worth his price tag.
D Arizona Cardinals 5 points
I guess you can’t hit them all …
The final score was an amazing 245,12 points, more than six points better than the second place finisher. It clearly shows that you need to paint your own rainbow to follow to the pot of gold.
Matt Ryan and Julio Jones will not be overlooked week 5, but perhaps they should be? Falcons is not the same team away, and Denver Broncos has the best defense in the league.
Perhaps you should look for another elite WR that is overlooked? Someone who has underperformed fantasy wise, but have played against shutdown cornerbacks and now have a reasonable matchup in a probable shoot out? Like Green Bay Packers – New York Giants. I’m talking about WR Odell Beckham Junior. He could be this weeks Julio Jones and is a perfect start on your GPP team. The combo with QB Eli Manning is not out of the question.
Eddie Royal will be on many GPP teams, but is a must on all your cash game teams. Colts defense stinks, Ashlon Jeffery is still banged up and Kevin White is out. The combo QB Brian Hoyer and WR Eddie Royal is insane value this week.
Philadelphia Eagles Defense has impressed a lot. With nothing else that looks tempting this week it should be the way to go.
Tom Brady is back. He might be a bit rusty, will be over-owned and is not the way forward. WR Julian Edelman is. Fully healthy now, has a great report with Brady and faces Browns very kind secondary. With Gronk banged up look for Edelman to pile up catches. Edelman is ranked 24th at FanDuel for $7,000 and 21st at DraftKings for $6,700. That’s value!
I’ve saved the best for last. Eagles rookie QB Carson Wentz has looked like a killer so far. He’s slicing up any defense and anything they throw at him. His running backs are nothing extra, and his wide receivers have not impressed either. But this week he gets TE Zach Ertz back.
He is the super talent that was misused by Chip Kelly last season. Back from injury he is completely forgotten now. He is facing a Detroit Lions that sucks against tight ends. Zach Erts is ranked 12th at DraftKings for $3,500 and 11th at FanDuel for $5,600. He is the play of the week, both in cash games and in GPP.