Overreactions from last season and how we can take advantage

People have a short memory. That is a good thing in Fantasy Football, and especially good in Daily Fantasy Football. Talking Heads are also people, even tough they behave like cartoons sometimes. That is a good thing too, not that they behave like cartoons, but that they have short memory. Furthermore they have working orders to see the world in black and withe, and their appetite for being spectacular enhance the bias created of their short memory.

This is something we will take advantage of every week, and the research have already started. Let’s look at last season.

There is no thing like a “safe pick”.  Injuries happen a lot in the most physical game on the planet (except maybe rugby Aussie style.)

There shouldn’t come as a surprise that QB’s get injured. There are 250-pound gorillas a few yards away that tries to turn them in to a pancake after every snap. Not even the best o-line in football could hinder Cowboys QB Tony Romo to get injured last season.

Last year’s consensus QB1 picks where Packers Aaron Rodgers and Colts Andrew Luck. They where rated way above any other QB. If you invested in them you probably didn’t make the play offs. Both where injured and huge fantasy busts. People have short memory, but they will remember things like that.

I’m not a fan of investing a high pick or a lot of auction dollars on a QB, especially not when the trend is more and more passing and everybody churn out great fantasy numbers, but I can see some QB’s being undervalued this season. Stay tuned!

I’m not a fan of investing a lot in RB’s either, I prefer WR’s, but I can see that the running backs as a group will be undervalued this year. And it’s the same principal; people have short memories.

Let’s take a look at the top ten fantasy running backs in drafts and auctions last year:

  1. Le’Veon Bell – suspended first two games and season over in week 8 because of injured knee
  2. Adrian Peterson – performed well, but failed in the play offs and didn’t win any championships
  3. Eddie Lacy ­– performed sporadically, but given his price tag a bust
  4. Jamaal Charles – season over in week 5 due to injury
  5. Marshawn Lynch – played only seven games because of injuries and was another bust
  6. J. Anderson – never got more than fifteen carries per game, and looked sluggish when he got the ball
  7. Matt Forte – 898 rushing yards, 389 passing yards, 44 receptions and 7 TD’s. You where probably satisfied if you had him, but given the price tag he didn’t win you any championship
  8. DeMarco Murray – the biggest bust of them all
  9. Jeremy Hill – almost as big a bust as Murray
  10. LeSean McCoy – nagging injuries, and with a little less production that Forte. He probably didn’t cost you the championship, but he didn’t win it for you either

Can’t get much more catastrophic than that. Given peoples short memories I’m positive that we can find value in good RB’s this season. But we have to be careful, because the landscape of RB’s is a minefield.

This is what we’re looking for:

  • Someone good
  • Someone who will get the ball a lot
  • Somebody who isn’t injury prone
  • Someone who has a good o-line that can help opening up lanes
  • Someone that have a good defense so the offense doesn’t have to pass to catch up
  • Someone who have minimum decent QB so the opponent’s doesn’t stack the box against the rungame

Lets go through last year’s top RB prospects and see if we like anyone this year.

LeSean McCoy – If injury free I see very good production from him, and I have a feeling he will be undervalued too. He is on my radar.

Jeremy Hill – He had nothing to put the blame on, he just looked bad and should be avoided. Don’t fall into the fantasy death trap of “bargain price”.

DeMarco Murray – Had one epic season behind Cowboys o-line where he was force-fed the ball, and was a bust the next season in Eagles new system. He could yield you a high reward, but the risk is even higher. A new team is an added risk and Titans D is too bad for my taste.

Matt Forte – Came at a bargain price last year because of age and a lot of mileage. Will come at a bargain price one year later too. I can see him getting a lot of ball in Jets, but they have to solve their QB situation first.

C.J. Anderson ­– Had nagging injuries and Broncos o-line broke down completely. But he looked good in the play offs and was the frontrunner to win the MVP in the third quarter. Keep an eye on C.J. because he could be a hit.

Marshawn Lynch – Retired.

Jamaal Charles – Getting old, has a lot of mileage and will not come at a bargain price. Warning!

Eddie Lacy – Bulked up before season to be a power running back, but just became slow. This year he has slimmed down to become fast. Have the potential in a good situation in Packers. I would bite at the right price.

Adrian Peterson – Will continue to produce, but is one year older and will not be cheap. Worth his price tag, but I don’t see any upside. Le’Veon Bell – Would have been the number one pick for everyone last year if he wasn’t suspended the first two games. Should definitely be number one this year.  I see a record-breaking fantasy performance.